FACT CHECK | Did PF infrastructure investment make Western Province no longer Zambia’s poorest province?

By MakanDay

Claim

Former diplomat and Patriotic Front (PF) member Emmanuel Mwamba claimed in a Facebook post that Western Province is no longer Zambia’s poorest province because of major infrastructure investments undertaken during the PF administration.

Among the projects he cited were the Mongu–Kalabo Road, Sioma Bridge, the Mongu–Senanga and Mongu–Sesheke roads, township roads in Mongu, the cashew infrastructure programme and the construction of new secondary schools.

What did MakanDay check?

MakanDay examined two questions:

• Did Western Province receive substantial infrastructure investment during the PF administration?
• Do official statistics show that these investments made Western Province no longer Zambia’s poorest province?

What the evidence shows

Official records confirm that Western Province benefited from significant public infrastructure investment over the past two decades, with several major projects completed during the PF administration.

These include the completion of the Mongu–Kalabo Road, Sioma Bridge across the Zambezi River, the Mongu–Senanga and Mongu–Sesheke roads, township roads in Mongu, implementation of the cashew infrastructure programme, and construction of secondary schools in districts such as Sesheke and Sikongo.

The latest official poverty statistics also show that Western Province no longer records the highest poverty incidence in Zambia.

According to the 2022 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) published by the Zambia Statistics Agency, Muchinga Province has the highest poverty incidence at 82.6%, followed by Western Province (78.6%), Northern Province (78.0%) and Luapula Province (76.5%).

This means it is factually correct that Western Province is no longer the province with the highest poverty incidence.

Did infrastructure investment cause the change?

The available evidence does not establish that conclusion. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey measures poverty levels across Zambia but does not analyse the reasons why poverty increased or declined in particular provinces. It therefore cannot be used to conclude that infrastructure projects implemented under the PF administration caused Western Province to move from having the country’s highest poverty incidence.

Changes in poverty levels are influenced by a range of factors, including household incomes, agricultural production, employment, economic growth, social protection programmes, migration and demographic changes. The LCMS does not attribute changes in provincial poverty to specific government projects or administrations.

While it is therefore accurate that Western Province no longer has the highest poverty incidence, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the infrastructure investments cited by Mr Mwamba were responsible for that change.

Verdict

Claim: PF infrastructure investment made Western Province no longer Zambia’s poorest province.

Rating: Partly Correct.

Official records support the claim that Western Province benefited from substantial infrastructure investment during the PF administration. Official poverty statistics also confirm that Western Province no longer has the highest poverty incidence in Zambia.

However, there is no evidence in the 2022 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey showing that the infrastructure projects cited caused this change. While both statements are individually supported by available evidence, the causal link between them has not been established. Therefore, the claim is only partly supported by the available evidence.