ELECTION WATCH: The Ballot Was National. The Ground Game Isn’t — And Now the Results are Adding Another Layer

Before Zambia voted, MakanDay went through the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) nomination records and found a striking difference between the country’s two leading parties.

United Party for National Development (UPND) fielded parliamentary candidates in all 226 constituencies. National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP) fielded candidates in only 153 — leaving 73 seats uncontested by the party.

Now look at the emerging results.

Of 183 parliamentary results announced so far:

UPND — 103 seats
NRPUP — 52
Resolute Party — 6
Citizens First — 2
Zambia Must Prosper — 1
Independents — 19

And the geography is worth watching.

Before Election Day, NRPUP had candidates in every constituency in Northern, Luapula and Muchinga, and 27 of 29 in Eastern — areas where the party expected to compete strongly.

But it was absent from 50 constituencies in Southern, Western and North-Western alone, provinces regarded as UPND strongholds.

The presidential results are showing a similarly pronounced geographical pattern. With 135 of 226 constituencies announced, Hakainde Hichilema had 1,544,140 votes, compared with Brian Mundubile’s 1,030,662 — a lead of 513,478 votes.

President Hakainde Hichilema has recorded some of his biggest margins in Southern, Western and North-Western, while Mundubile has performed strongly in parts of Eastern, Luapula and the Copperbelt.

So the question becomes more interesting: Did Zambia’s parliamentary battle begin to be shaped before a single vote was cast — by where the parties were, and were not, on the ballot?

UPND went everywhere. NRPUP concentrated much more heavily in areas where it had stronger political support — but left nearly one-third of Zambia’s parliamentary constituencies without an NRPUP candidate.

Now the emerging results are giving us a first glimpse of what that different ground game may have meant.

The ballot was national. The political footprints were not.

EDITORIAL NOTE: Figures reflect ECZ results available at the time of publication and remain provisional until the electoral process is concluded.

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